The Israeli Election and
Liberman’s Pivotal Conditions.
The Israeli elections on
September 2019 proved one thing. Not only is Israel the only democracy in the
Middle East, it is also a global democracy on steroids.
The elections results showed the
benefits but mainly the faults of a multi-party electoral system.
The race started with 31 hopeful
parties. At the end of the voting process Israel was left with nine political
parties winning seats in the 22nd Knesset.
Israel has to change the law by
lifting the electoral threshold for allocated seats in a future Knesset from
the current low bar of 3.25% to 5%.
The outcome of a very tight race
left the Israeli version of the Siamese twins able to form a narrow majority
government but shackled from doing so by pre-conditions set by Benny Ganz, the
leader of the Blue & White party, who said he would never sit in a joint
government with a leader facing criminal charges, referring to the corruption
charges faced by Likud leader and perennial Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Unless Ganz climbs down from his
moral tree Israel is frozen in a stand-off and could, potentially be facing its
third election in under a year.
President Reuven Rivlin said he
would not allow this to happen, but he has no constitutional role in deciding
the outcome.
The spoiler in the game is the
blunt Russian, Avigdor Liberman. He’s the tough guy who is calling the shots
having positioned himself as a centrist party winning nine decisive seats. This
has enabled him to be the pivotal figure in the race to power.
Liberman picked up lots of votes
from disaffected Bibi voters who sought refuse in Liberman’s party, unable to
bring themselves to vote for Ganz’s party with the left-wing Yair Lapid toted
to become a rotational prime minister in a Blue & White government.
Without Liberman, Likud
is unable to form a right-wing government. Insufficient mandates of the small
right-wing and religious parties prevent the option of a coalition without
Liberman, and Liberman has issues with the religious bloc. No right wing-religious
deal is possible without the heavy Liberman climbing down from his political
tree.
Ganz is unable to form a
center-left coalition even with the Arab party without Liberman because Liberman
has said he will not sit in any government with the current Arab politicians,
most of whom he sees as anti-Israel antagonists and not part of the Israeli
consensus.
With the final votes not yet in
Liberman faced the press the morning after election night to itemize his
conditions for joining a 73-seat unity government with the Likud and Blue &
White.
Liberman is pushing for a more
secular society in Israel. He insisted that the recruitment law, which requires
every citizen to serve in the IDF, must apply to the orthodox religious
community in which most of the young men spend their years studying in yeshivot
(religious education institutes) instead of serving in the army.
He also insisted that all
Israelis, including the ultra-orthodox who have their own strictly religious
education, must go through the general state education system. The religious
students can, insisted Liberman, continue their religious studies after a day
of regular education where they will learn worldly subjects like mathematics,
geography, languages, etc.
Liberman’s final
condition hit at the strictures placed on regular Israelis by religious
political parties of the past. He insisted that public transport be allowed to
operate on the Sabbath. The religious parties look on this as a desecration of
the Jewish holy day of the week. Regular Israelis look on the absence of public
transportation on Saturdays as a forced imposition. Saturday is the only free
day of the week for working Israelis. Lack of public transport on a Saturday
severely restricts many Israelis from visiting family, or simply enjoy
traveling to wherever they want on their one day of leisure.
The problem with
Liberman for the two main parties is that they never know what new imposition
the heavy Russian will lay on them next. Liberman destroyed a previous
Netanyahu-coalition because he was unhappy by the way the Prime Minister
handled Hamas in Gaza. He thought Netanyahu was too kid-gloved in not
responding hard enough against Hamas after one of their rocket bombardments on
Israeli civilians.
The Likud and Blue
& White have the ability of forming a narrow two-party coalition of 64
seats, if only Ganz can climb down from his tree. He insisted that he would
never share a government with Netanyahu facing impending charges.
Then we come to the tricky
ego-charged question of who will be Israel’s next Prime Minister. Ganz or
Netanyahu.
The process demands
that the leaders of every party elected to the next Knesset will recommend to
the president which leader they prefer to be prime minister. Of the nine
parties, four will choose Netanyahu, four will choose Ganz, and no one knows
what Liberman will whisper in Rivlin's ear. This is where
President Reuven Rivlin has to transform himself into King Solomon. He has to
knock heads together and impose a solution dividing up the electoral baby.
It may hurt some
egos and upset part of the Israeli electorate, but it’s better than Israel
facing a third election in less than a year.
Barry Shaw is the International Public Diplomacy Director
at the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies.
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